dreaife的休憩小栈

A month has passed before I knew it. My trading win rate has felt pretty high lately, so I wanted to do a review.

My most recent big profit came from a short position on 2/3. I used a small amount of spare capital with high leverage and nearly doubled my principal. However, I misjudged the target level of Ethereum’s wick, which cost me a significant portion of those profits. At least I still came out ahead overall and gained some experience from it.

Then there is the current sideways market following the rebound. Perhaps because there has not been much participation from large capital, my calls have become considerably more accurate, and my high-frequency trading account has also grown severalfold. Looking ahead, once liquidity is injected, there will almost certainly be another rally. However, I still cannot tell whether the market will first perform a supply test, then a secondary test before moving higher, or take some other path. All I can do is wait and see how the market develops. In that sense, the current conditions are quite mentally exhausting. I remain bullish from a medium- to long-term perspective, but the market is weak in the short term and may still undergo another test. At the same time, I am swing trading within the current range and constantly worried that large capital might suddenly enter the market and officially kick off the final leg. Psychologically, it really is draining.

Looking back at my trading experience so far, I have already lived through several major rallies and crashes and done quite a bit of on-chain trading. Even so, facing a drop of more than 30% in stablecoin terms still left me somewhat stunned. Therefore, I think I should summarize my trading approach and establish some rules to keep myself disciplined. That way, when I face another major rise or fall, the resulting emotional swings will be less likely to distort how I trade.

First, regarding my trading approach, I currently judge the market’s next move almost entirely from candlestick patterns and trading volume. In other words, I primarily engage in left-side trading. I mainly watch the 4h and 1d charts, switching to the 1h chart for additional judgment when the market becomes more volatile.

As for position allocation, I currently use 80% of my capital for low-leverage trades based on the broader trend. Another 10% goes toward relatively higher-frequency trades with high leverage, although their holding period is still around one day. The remainder is mainly used to hunt for on-chain memecoins. Since my capital is still limited, I am currently taking relatively high risks, with potential losses reaching 10%.

Then there is the matter of mindset. Since I am still easily affected by market fluctuations, I choose to stay out of the market when the direction is unclear, or wait for a candlestick to close before making a judgment. As for the high-frequency portion, I have found that after establishing a stable cash flow, taking on more gambling-like trades no longer causes emotional swings that significantly affect my execution. In fact, my success rate has improved considerably.

All in all, I wanted to briefly record my recent trading experiences, partly to prevent myself from slipping back into emotionally driven trading in the future.